A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
