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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward formula. It frequently functions as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest improvement wins the prize. However, it sparks an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or simply the greatest surprise.

But the current race is distinctly different. The pool of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference champions declining and longtime also-rans improving collectively. In an normal year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this turbulent and fun year, he's facing several other exceptional candidates.

This is how the ideal vote could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been given the opportunity to display his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an attack built solely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when openings haven't been there, he's been capable to create big plays from nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the building with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current is not a normal year!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term winning. But Johnson falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has nailed the leadership stuff, which was not a given following his early public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, he bet on newbies. From the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

After an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason setback caused the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has fallen away since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still